Kwamamaza

Uko Dr Karuranga abona amatora yo hirya no hino ku Isi muri iki gihe

Yanditswe kuya 25-11-2016 saa 12:06' na Karirima A.Ngarambe


Dr Karuranga Egide, Umwarimu w’umunyarwanda wigisha muri kaminuza zitandukanye ku Isi nko muri Amerika, Canada, Mexique, u Bufaransa no mu Rwanda, akaba n’umuhanga mu kuyobora ibigo n’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, yagaragaje uko abona amatora hirya no hino ku Isi muri iki gihe.

Dr Karuranga avuga ko amatora ari kugenda aba hirya no hino ku Isi asangiye ibintu bibiri birimo ingufu zikoreshwa mu kwigarurira imitima y’abaturage (populism) hakoreshejwe uburyo bunyuranye burimo n’ubusa n’iterabwoba ndetse no kwibeshya kw’ibiba byavuye mu bitekerezo by’abaturage mbere y’amatora (polls).

IGIHE: ‘Populism’ ni iki?

Dr Karuranga: Ikunze kugaragara mu bihugu by’umugabane w’u Burayi na Amerika ya ruguru muri iyi minsi, aho abantu twakwita rubanda rusanzwe, bamaze iminsi bahamagarirwa kwerekana uburakari mu matora, cyane bakagira n’abiyamamaza babibacengezamo, akenshi bakoresheje iterabwoba.

IGIHE: Wadusobanurira uko bigenda ?

Dr Karuranga: Umuntu araza akabwira abazatora ati ‘murashize, abanyamahanga ni bo ba nyirabayazana y’ibibazo mufite, nimutantora ngo mbirukane kababayeho’, ati hari ibihugu biduteza ibibazo, tugomba kubihashya, kuko byabatwaye akazi, ni byo bibakenesheje.

Ibi ni zimwe mu ntwaro zakunze kwemerwa n’abantu benshi muri ibyo bihugu muri iyi minsi y’amatora.

Muri Amerika Donald Trump yarazikoresheje kugira ngo atorwe, mu Bwongereza barazikoresheje mu kiswe Brexit bitandukanya n’abandi banyaburayi.

IGIHE: Nk’abakurikiranira ibi hafi mubona bisanzwe?

Dr Karuranga: Oya ntibisanzwe, ariko bikunze kubaho mu bihugu bifite utubazo tutakemutse vuba, abantu bagahora bategereje ubundi buryo bwo kubakemurira ibyananiranye, navuga ko ukwigarurira abantu (populism) na demokarasi bisanzwe ahenshi kandi bigenda binansimburana. Mu gihe Amerika n’u Burayi bashakira ibisubizo muri ubwo buryo (populism), Amerika y’Epfo yo irimo kuyisezerera, na bake bayisigayemo nka Eva Morales muri Bolivia na Nicolas Maduro muri Venezuela barabyina zivamo.

IGIHE: Wadusobanurira iby’ibyegeranyo(Polls)?

Dr Karuranga: Ibyegeranyo ubundi byabwiraga abantu uko bahagaze mu mitekerereze yabo ku bo bazatora. Muri iyi minsi biribeshya cyane, byaribeshye mu Bwongereza igihe cya Brexit, byibeshya ku buryo butunguranye muri Amerika aho Trump yatowe atunguranye, none n’ejo bundi mu Bufaransa, François Fillion yegukanye umwanya wa mbere nta wabikekaga.

IGIHE: Mubona biterwa n’iki?

Dr Karuranga: Ibyegeranyo ni ibarura. Ibyari bikunze kutibeshya ni ibyashingiraga kuri bene wabo, bikagerageza guterateranya uko abantu basubije, yemwe bakanakora ibyo gupima (pondération) kugira ngo mu kugabanya abazanye bake babajije bataryamira ababajije benshi, ibi na byo nta cyo byatanze kubera impamvu ebyiri nyamukuru.

Mu ibarura(statistics) hari ibyo twita kubogama. Ibi birapimwa, ariko ibyegeranyo(polls) tubona muri iyi minsi nta na rimwe bitubwira cyangwa bitwereka uko byapimye ibyavuye mu bo babajije (non-response bias test). Abantu wabajije wihuta akenshi ntuba wizeye ko basa n’abazaza mu biro by’amatora.

Wagakoze rero ibibitwereka. Ubwo ni uburyo bwa mbere. Na bwo burakemangwa kuko nta wumenya abazaza ku munsi wa nyuma. Aho ushobora kwifashisha uko amatsinda y’abagiye bagusubiza ukaba ariyo ukoraho igereranya kuko aba mbere, abo hagati, n’abagusubije nyuma, iyo usanze badasa, haba hari ikibazo.

Ushobora no kwitegereza niba abasubiza kuri telefoni, kuri email, n’ahandi basa, wakora igenzura ugasanga ntaho bahuriye ukamenya impamvu.

Impamvu nyamukuru ya kabiri, ni ibyo twita social desirability (ni uburyo bwo kwemera ibyo utekerezwaho n’abandi). Populism twavuze haruguru ishingiye ku byo nakwita urwango rwa muntu, rwa mugenzi wawe, rw’umuturanyi.

Iyo rero ubajije umuntu niba azatora akenshi ntakubwiza ukuri, yifuza kukwereka ko we ari mwiza, ko atanga ibindi bihugu, ko atanga abanyamahanga n’ibindi. Ariko yazagera mu kazu k’itora, umutimanama we ukagaruka kuri rwa rwango agendana. Iyo ’social desirability’ rero yo gushaka kwiyerekana uko utari na yo yica polls cyane.

Byarabaye i Burundi, muri Nicaragua, muri Amerika, mu matora ya Brexit mu Bwongereza.

IGIHE: Donald Trump yaragutunguye?

Dr Karuranga: Si cyane, kuko nakomeje mvuga ko byose bizabera muri leta abakandida bombi baba bafite amahirwe yo gutsindira (Swing States) aho Hillary Clinton yagombaga gukora iyo bwabaga akurikije uko abazituye bazatora basa (demographics), ibi byaramunaniye kugera n’aho zimwe yazisuye nyuma, nabwo akahaca rimwe gusa nko muri Wisconsin. Ahandi akahagera akererewe, ubundi ntiyerure ngo abwire abazatora ubutumwa bubareba imbona nkubone.

Perezida Obama na Michellle Obama baje kumufasha nyuma, ariko baje batinze kugera n’aho Leta zikomeye kuri Obama yari yatsinze bazitakaje nka Florida, Ohio na Pennslyvania.

Donald Trump rero ntiyantunguye cyane. Yaje kwiyegereza abirabura n’abaturuka mu bihugu byo mu Majypfo ya Amerika (Latinos). Abirabura ntibamutoye ariko byatumye abazungu bamwizera ko ashobora kubavugisha.

Mu baturuka mu Majypfo ya Amerika ho yanahakuye amajwi n’ubwo yari yabandagaje ku ikubitiro, muri kwa kwigarurira abantu yakomeje kubatera ubwoba, agera n’aho ababwira ko atazemera ikizava mu matora, bityo atera ingufu abafana be barayitabira.

Ndahamya ko mu mashuri y’itumanaho n’itangazamakuru bazamwiga igihe kirekire, kubera uburyo yakoresheje mu mvugo ze akagera aho atorwa atunguranye.

IGIHE: Mubona mute ibyo Trump azahindura?

Dr Karuranga: Azahindura ibyasinywe bitaratangira nk’ariya masezerano ya Pacific. Ahandi ashobora kuzahindura, ni mu Rukiko rw’Ikirenga kuko asanze abacamanza bagomba kujyaho.

Azashyiraho abumva ibintu kimwe na we ku bibazo by’urubyaro. Ubundi igihugu nka kiriya kiba gifite inzego zidapfa guhindagurika ngo n’uko haje umuntu mushya, nka CIA, FBI, Igisirikare, Igipolisi, amasezerano menshi mpuzamahanga, Banki nkuru y’igihugu, ibi byose si ibintu bihindagurika buri munsi muri Amerika.

Uretse ko bike azahindura bizamworohera kurusha Obama, kuva afite abamushyigikiye benshi (majority) mu Nteko Ishinga Amategeko umutwe w’Abadepite na Sena.

Dr Karuranga avuga ko abona ubuyobozi bwa Trump buzamworohera, n’inshuti zo mu mahanga ku ikubitiro ngo ntazazibura kuko i Burayi hari ibihugu bimaze iminsi bifite amatwara nk’aye.

Dr Egide Karuranga avuga ko Trump atazagorwa n'ubuyobozi nkuko hari ababivuga

Kwamamaza

Kwamamaza
IZINDI NKURU WASOMA
TANGA IGITEKEREZO

ANDIKA ICYO UTEKEREZA KURI IYI NKURU

AMATEGEKO AGENGA IYANDIKA RY'IGITEKEREZO CYAWE:
Witandukira kubijyanye n'iyi nkuru; wikwandika ibisebanya, ibyamamaza cyangwa bivangura; wikwandika ibiteye isoni,
Wifuza kubona byihuse ibivugwa/ibisubizo ku gitekerezo cyawe, andika email yawe ahabugenewe.
Igitekerezo cyawe kigaragara nyuma y'isuzuma rikorwa na IGIHE.com
Ibi bidakurikijwe igitekerezo cyanyu gishobora kutagaragara hano cyangwa kigasibwa, Murakoze!
ANDIKA ICYO UTEKEREZA KURI IYI NKURU
Kwamamaza
IBITEKEREZO
Join Us

Socialize with Us
Contacts

Marketing
4546
Editor
078 827 26 21
Management
0788 74 29 08 / 0788 49 69 15

Emails: [email protected], [email protected]

Website Developped by

Uru Rubuga Ruheruka Gushyirwaho Amakuru Saturday 10 Ukuboza 2016
Copyright © 2009 -2014 - IGIHE Ltd - All Rights Reserved