Amwe mu makimbirane akomeye ashobora kwibasira isi mu 2018

Yanditswe na David Eugène Marshall
Kuya 6 Mutarama 2018 saa 05:20
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Iyo umwaka ushize hatangiye umushya, ku isi havugwa byinshi haba ku bijyanye no gusuzuma ibyagezweho n’ibitarashobotse ndetse no kugena ingamba z’ibigamijwe kuzakorwa.

Mu ruhando mpuzamahanga bibaho ko bimwe mu bigo bikomeye na za leta bishobora kugaragaza uko bibona ibintu n’uko bizabyitwaramo.

Muri iyi nkuru turabagezaho amakimbirane n’intambara zikaze bishobora kuba hirya no hino ku isi nk’uko byagaragajwe na Robert Malley, Umuyobozi w’Ikigo Mpuzamahanga gishinzwe kurwanya amakimbirane ku isi (International Crisis Group), mu nyandiko ye dukesha urubuga The Foreign Policy.

Intambara n’amakimbirane bivugwa ko bizibasira isi muri uyu mwaka hafi ya byose bisa n’aho ari ibyari bisanzwe bizakomeza kubera ko bitabonewe umuti mu mwaka ushize wa 2017.

Uretse gusa ikibazo cy’ukwemezwa kwa Yeruzalemu nk’Umurwa Mukuru wa Israel kwagizwe na Amerika kwabayeho mu buryo butari bwitezwe na benshi, ibindi ni nk’akiziritse ku muhoro gasiga kawuciye.

Kimwe mu bintu byigaragaza nk’ibidatuma isi igira amahoro kurushaho ngo ni ukuba leta zitandukanye, aho gushyira imbere politiki na dipolomasi mu gukemura amakimbirane mpuzamahanga n’ay’imbere mu bihugu, hisungwa ingamba zo gukoresha imbaraga za gisirikare kurusha ibiganiro.

Ibi byigaragaza cyane muri politiki ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, aho Perezida Donald Trump yakunze kwiyegereza imbaraga n’inama z’abasirikare bakomeye mu bibazo bitandukanye kuruta ko yakwifashisha abadipolomate mu kubikemura nk’uko byari bisanzwe ku bandi baperezida ba Amerika.

Guhangana kwa Amerika n’u Burusiya mu Kanama Gashinzwe Amahoro ka Loni hamwe no guhora ibi bihugu biterana amagambo na byo biri mu bikomeje gutuma isi igaragara nk’idafite icyerekezo gihamye mu kubona amahoro arambye.

Kuva ibihugu byo Burengerazuba bw’isi byakwishyira hamwe bigakuraho ubutegetsi bwa Colonel Muammar Ghadafi wa Libya, mu 2011, u Burusiya na Amerika ndetse n’u Burayi byabaye nk’ibitangiza indi ntambara y’ubutita.

Ibi ngo bigaragarira mu ntambara zibera muri Syria aho amahanga ayobowe na Amerika yishyize hamwe agashaka guhindura ubutegetsi muri iki gihugu ariko u Burusiya bukayitambika hakoreshejwe imbaraga za gisirikare, kugeza magingo aya iki gihugu kikaba cyarabaye isibaniro ry’ibihugu by’ibihangange hafi ya byose ku isi.

Uguhangana kw’ibihugu bya Iran na Arabia Saoudite kandi na ko kuzakomeza kuba umuzigo utazorohera isi muri uyu mwaka wa 2018, aho ibi bihugu byamaze gusa n’ibirenga uguterana amagambo, bigahanganira rwihishwa muri Yemen, kimwe gishyigikiye ubutegetsi, ikindi gitera inkunga ababurwanya.

Abarwanyi bo muri Yemen b’umutwe wa Popular Resistance Committees bashyigikiye Umwami wa Arabia Saoudite bahanganye n’Aba-Shiite muri Beihan mu Ukuboza 2017(Ifoto ya Abdullah Al-Qadry/AFP/Getty Images)

Ku mugabane wa Afurika bizaba byifashe bite?

Muri iki cyegeranyo, Robert Malley ntiyasize inyuma ibibazo biri ku mugabane wa Afurika cyane cyane amatora ategerejwe kuba mu Ukuboza 2018 muri Republika Iharanira Demokrasi ya Congo, atavugwaho rumwe hagati ya leta n’abayirwanya.

Gusa ngo ku mugabane wa Afurika ibintu bishobora kutazaba bibi cyane kubera ingamba uyu mugabane wafashe wo gutangira kwishakamo ubushobozi mu by’amafaranga, gushaka no gushimangira umutekano aho utari n’ahandi hashobora kwaduka amakimbirane.

Muri ibi byose ariko, ikibazo cy’umutekano muke mu karere k’ubutayu bwa Sahel ngo kizakomeza kuba ingorabahizi nubwo haherutse gushyirwaho umutwe wa gisirikare uhuriweho n’ibihugu bitari bike byo muri Afurika n’u Burayi wiswe G5 Sahel.

Uyu mutwe uzaba uhuje ingabo z’ibihugu byo muri ako karere birimo Mauritanie, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger na Tchad, ukaba uzaterwa inkunga n’u Bufaransa na Amerika, ikintu abahanga bavuga ko na cyo kitakwitegwaho umusaruro ufatika kubera ko hari n’indi mitwe yawubanjirije ntigire icyo igeraho gifatika mu kurandura imitwe y’ibyihebe ikorera muri ako karere.

Ibibazo bya politiki n’ubukungu byo muri Venezuela hagati ya Perezida Nicolas Maduro n’abamurwanya na byo bizashegesha akarere ka Amerika y’Amajyepfo hatibagiranye ihohoterwa ryakunze kuvugwa ko rikorerwa ubwoko bwa ba nyamuke b’aba Rohingya bubarizwa muri Myanmar muri Aziya nubwo iki kibazo gisa n’ikigenda kigabanya ubukana.

Impunzi z’aba Rohingya ubwo zari mu Mujyi wa Cox's Bazar muri Bangladesh zigaragaza icyizere gike cy’ubuzima bitewe no kutagerwaho n’inkunga

Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Koreya ya Ruguru bizakomeza kurebana ay’ingwe

Ikibazo cyo guterana amagambo no gukangishanya ibitwaro bya kirimbuzi hagati ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Koreya ya Ruguru, kizakomeza kuba imbere mu bizavugisha menshi isi.

Ibintu kandi bizarushaho kuba bibi mu gihe Amerika yazashaka gukomeza kwikura mu masezerano mpuzamahanga yagiye isinya nk’uko yabigenje mu yitiriwe Paris yari agamije kurengera ibidukikije; ibi bizasiga isi ibyina muzunga kurushaho muri uyu mwaka.

Havugwa kandi amasezerano yo guhagarika icurwa ry’intwaro za kirimbuzi Iran yagiranye n’Umuryango Mpuzamahanga, Amerika ishaka ko yahinduka, ibintu bishobora gukongeza intambara itoroshye mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati bwari busanzwe butorohewe n’izihasanzwe.

Robert Malley asobanura kandi ko isi itagomba kwibwira ko amakimbirane yo muri Afghanistan yarangiye kimwe n’uko ibihugu bya Ukraine n’u Burusiya bitazabura gukomeza kurebana ay’ingwe.

Mu nyandiko ye na none anegura bikomeye amahanga yiyumvisha ko imbunda n’inzira y’intambara bizakemura ibibazo afite, ahubwo we akemeza ko uko izo ntambara zishyirwa imbere, ari na ko abazirwana biremamo indi mitwe y’abarwanyi myinshi.

Kuri we igikwiriye gushyirwa imbere ni ukuganira kw’abatavuga rumwe hagamijwe kugera ku mahoro arambye.

Igitwaro cya rutura cy’ingabo za Ukraine cyari mu Burasirazuba bw’Umujyi wa Avdiivka zihanganye n’abashyigikiye inyeshyamba z’Abarusiya
Abaturage b’abanya- Afghanistan bicaye n’imbunda zabo mu karere ka Pachir Wa Agham (Noorullah Shirzada/AFP/Getty Images)

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