Hari hashize amasaha make Leta y’u Burusiya yemeje ubwigenge bwa Leta za Luhansk na Donetsk zimaze imyaka umunani mu ntambara karundura n’Ingabo za Ukraine. Ibi bice byombi biherereye mu gice cya Donbas kiri mu Burasirazuba bwa Ukraine, neza neza ku mupaka n’u Burusiya.

Putin avuga ko kuva abarwanyi b’izo Leta batangira guhangana n’Ingabo za Ukraine, Leta y’icyo gihugu yakoze ibikorwa by’ihohotera ku baturage ba Leta ziyomoye, ibikorwa Perezida Putin avuga ko biri ku rwego rwa ’Jenoside’.

Nyuma y’amasaha make Putin ategetse ko Ingabo z’u Burusiya zinjira muri Ukraine mu bikorwa byo kwambura intwaro Ingabo z’icyo gihugu, humvikanye ibisasu biremereye byarashwe mu bice bitandukanye bya Ukraine birimo n’Umurwa Mukuru, Kyiv, kimwe n’indi mijyi.

Perezida Putin kandi ntiyasoreje aho kuko yaburiye buri wese uzivanga mu bikorwa by’u Burusiya ko azahura n’ibyago bikomeye bitigeze bibaho mu mateka y’Isi.

Igitero cy’u Burusiya kuri Ukraine ni cyo cya mbere gikomeye kibayeho kuva Intambara ya Kabiri y’Isi yarangira mu 1945, bikaba byitezwe ko kizateza ibyago bikomeye cyane birimo ubuhunzi ku baturage barenga miliyoni eshanu, idindira ry’ubukungu bw’Isi ndetse n’ibihano karundura bizafatirwa u Burusiya.

Ikibazo gikomeye cyibazwa na benshi, ni ukumenya impamvu Putin yahisemo gufata icyemezo gikomeye nk’iki kizagira ingaruka zikomeye cyane kuri buri wese utuye Isi, n’impamvu Ukraine ifite agaciro kangana gutyo imbere y’u Burusiya.

Inshamake y’amateka y’u Burusiya na Ukraine

Mu 2005, ubwo Perezida Vladimir Putin yavugaga ijambo rigaragaza uko igihugu gihagaze, yavuze ko isenyuka rya Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasiviyete (URSS) ari cyo cyago gikomeye cyabayeho mu Kinyejana cya 20.

Ibi byago, nk’uko Perezida Putin abyita, byabaye mu 1991, ubwo USSR yasenyukaga, ibihugu 15 byari biyigize, birimo u Burusiya na Ukraine bigatangira kwigenga mu buryo bwuzuye.

Gusenyuka kwa URSS bifite imizi miremire ishobora kuva mu mpera z’Intambara ya Kabiri y’Isi. Icyo gihe, URSS yari yarigaruriye ibihugu nka Hongrie na Tchécoslovaquie mu buryo bw’imbaraga, ariko hari n’ibindi byayiyobotse binyuze mu bwumvikane, ari nayo mpamvu yari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyete kuko byari ibihugu byinshi byihurije hamwe.

Mu rwego rwo kugabanya imigenderanire hagati y’u Budage bw’u Burasirazuba bwari ku ruhande rwa URSS n’u Budage bw’u Burengerazuba bwari ku ruhande rw’u Burayi, mu 1961 hubatswe Urukuta rwa Berlin.

Iterambere ry’u Burayi n’ibindi bihugu, kimwe n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu muri URSS, byatumye uru Rukuta rusenywa mu 1989, runaba ikimenyetso cya nyuma y’irindimuka rya URSS, ibihugu byinshi bisubirana ubwigenge byahoranye.

URSS yari ihuriro ryari rifitanye ubufatanye bwimbitse mu bya politiki, ubukungu, igisirikare n’izindi nzego ariko byari akarusho ku Burusiya bwari igihugu kinini muri na Ukraine yari igihugu cya kabiri mu kugira imbaraga muri URSS.

Uretse ubukungu n’igisirikare, Ukraine n’u Burusiya byari bisangiye ibindi bintu byinshi birimo amateka, umuco ndetse n’inkomoko hagati y’ibihugu byombi.

Amateka yerekana ko u Burusiya, Ukraine na Belarus bifite inkomoko mu Bwami bwa Kievan Rus bwabayeho hagati y’Ikinyejana cya cyenda n’icya 13. Ubu Bwami bwatangiriye muri Kyiv y’uyu munsi, ubu ni Umurwa Mukuru wa Ukraine.

Izina Rus (risobanura ubutaka) ubwaryo ryabaye inkomoko y’izina ry’Igihugu cy’u Burusiya, bikarushaho kumvikanisha isano ikomeye iri hagati y’ibihugu byombi. Mu 1654, u Burusiya na Ukraine byari byarabaye ibihugu bitandukanye ariko biza gusinya amasezerano yo kwihuza azwi nk’aya ’Pereyaslav’.

Kuva icyo gihe kugera mu ntangiriro z’ishingwa rya URSS mu 1917, Ukraine n’u Burusiya byakomeje kugirana umubano ukomeye cyane, kenshi bigafatwa nk’igihugu kimwe.

Nk’urugero, habarurwa ko nibura kimwe cya gatatu cy’abaturage miliyoni 44 ba Ukraine bavuga Ikirusiya nk’ururimi rwabo rwa mbere cyangwa ururimi rwabo gakondo. Ni mu gihe umuturage umwe muri batandatu ba Ukraine, afite inkomoko mu Burusiya.

Mu 1954, u Burusiya bwahaye Ukraine agace ka Crimea nk’impano yo kwishimira umubano w’impande zombi wari umaze imyaka 300, uretse ibi bitari bisobanuye ikintu kinini kuko ibihugu byombi byari bikiri muri URSS. Aga gace kaje kongera kugenzurwa n’u Burusiya mu 2014 nyuma y’uko gatoreye icyo cyemezo.

Kubera iyi sano ikomeye hagati y’ibihugu byombi, usanga abaturage b’igihugu kimwe bafite abavandimwe mu kindi ndetse no mu gihe URSS yasenyukaga mu 1991, nyina wa Perezida Mikhail Gorbachev wabaye uwa nyuma wayoboye URSS yahindutse Umunya-Ukraine, naho se aba Umurusiya.

Ku rundi ruhande, nka Perezida wa Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, yabaye mu Burusiya mu gihe kirenga imyaka 10, aho yubakiye izina muri byendagusetsa yakoraga mu Kirusiya.

Uburyo Ukraine ari ingenzi cyane ku Burusiya n’impamvu z’intambara

Iyo Ukraine itaza kuba ari ingenzi cyane ku Burusiya, ntabwo Perezida Putin yakabaye yarafashe icyemezo cyo gushoza intambara ishobora kuvamo iya Gatatu y’Isi.

Mbere na mbere, Ukraine ni ingenzi cyane ku Burusiya kubera amateka maremare ibihugu byombi bisangiye, dore ko bifite indimi zijya gusa, bigasangira amateka y’ibisekuru ndetse u Burusiya tuzi uyu munsi bukaba bufite inkomoko muri Ukraine.

Uretse isano ishingiye ku muco n’amateka, Ukraine ifite akandi kamaro gakomeye cyane ku Burusiya kuko iri mu nzira y’icyo gihugu mu bijyanye n’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.

U Burusiya ni igihugu kinini kandi gikize, aho gifite ibyambu by’ubwato 67 bikorerwaho ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga. Icyakora bitewe n’aho ibyo byambu biherereye, hari ubwo kubigeraho bihenda kuko biri kure, ubundi ugasanga bidashoboka nko mu bihe by’ubukonje amazi yabaye urubura.

Kimwe mu byambu bike bikoreshwa igihe cyose cy’umwaka ni ikiri i Novorossiysk, ari nacyo kigaburira Moscow, Umurwa Mukuru w’u Burusiya. Kugera kuri iki cyambu, bisaba kunyura mu Nyanja Yirabura (Black Sea). Birumvikana ko u Burusiya bukora kuri iyi Nyanja ariko Ukraine iyifiteho igice kinini cyane ndetse biroroshye ko ishobora kubangamira inzira y’amato ajya mu Burusiya.

Mu gihe Ukraine yagenzurwa n’Umuryango uhuza Igisirikare cy’Ibihugu biri mu Majyaruguru y’Inyanja ya Atlantique (NATO), byaba bisobanuye ko inzira y’ingenzi y’ubucuruzi ku Burusiya ibangamiwe, ibintu bishobora kugira ingaruka zitoroshye. Iyi Nyanja isanzwe iberamo imyitozo ya NATO ariko mu gihe Ukraine yakwinjira muri uyu Muryango, byatuma iyi myitozo yiyongera ndetse hakanashyirwa ibirindiro by’igisirikare byawo.

Bitewe no kurengera izi mpamvu z’ubukungu, u Burusiya bufata Ukraine nk’igihugu ntakorwaho, ari nayo mpamvu bwemeye gushoza intambara kugira ngo icyo gihugu kitajya mu maboko y’umwanzi wabwo, ari we NATO.

Ku rundi ruhande, Ukraine imeze nk’ikingira u Burusiya kuko yongera intera iri hagati yabwo na NATO. Mu gihe misile za NATO zashyirwa muri Ukraine, bivuze ko zaba ziri mu birometero 640 uvuye i Moscow ibyatuma ziramutswe zirashwe, u Burusiya bwaba bufite igihe gito cyane cyo gutegura ikoranabuhanga rikumira misile rishobora kuziburizamo.

Kuri ubu, izi misile ziri mu birometero birenga 1600 uvuye i Moscow ari na yo mpamvu u Burusiya butapfa kwemera ko zegerezwa muri Ukraine. Iyi niyo mpamvu Perezida Putin avuga ko kwinjira kwa Ukraine muri NATO ari ikibazo ku mutekano w’u Burusiya, ku buryo igitero yayigabyeho gifatwa nko kwirengera no kwirindira umutekano.

Ikindi cy’ingenzi ni ukumenya ko inshingano ya mbere ya NATO ari uguhangana n’u Burusiya. Uyu muryango washinzwe mu 1949 ufite intego nyamukuru yo gukumira ukwaguka kwa USSR. Icyo gihe uyu Muryango wari ugizwe n’ibihugu 12 ariko byakomeje kwaguka aho bimaze kuba 30. Kwaguka k’uyu Muryango gutera impungenge Perezida Putin kuko kugana mu Burasirazuba bw’u Burayi ndetse bimwe mu bihugu byahoze muri URSS byamaze kwinjira muri NATO.

Kugeza ubu, ibihugu bya NATO bikora kuri 6% by’umupaka w’u Burusiya, amahirwe akaba ko ibyo bihugu biri kure ya Moscow kandi akaba ari ibihugu bito. Icyakora kuri Ukraine biratandukanye, iki gihugu ni icya kabiri kinini mu Burayi nyuma y’u Burusiya, aho umupaka w’ibihugu byombi ari muremure, kuko urenga ibirometero 2.295 ku butaka no mu mazi.

Akamaro ka Ukraine kandi karenze gusa iby’umupaka n’amateka, bikanagera ku mutungo kamere. Iki gihugu ni kimwe mu bifite umutungo kamere utubutse, hakiyongeraho ubutaka bwera cyane. Bitangazwa ko mu gihe ubutaka bwa Ukraine bwabyazwa umusaruro mu buryo bwuzuye, bwagaburira abaturage hafi miliyoni 600.

Ukraine ni igihugu cya gatatu mu bifite gaz nyinshi mu Buruyi, ikaba iya 13 ku Isi. Iki gihugu gifite 0.4% by’ubuso bw’Isi, kikagira 0.8% by’abaturage b’Isi ariko kikagira 5% by’umutungo kamere w’Isi, nubwo mwinshi utaratangira kubyazwa umusaruro. Ibi bituma buri wese, yaba NATO n’u Burusiya, yifuza kugira akaboko muri iki gihugu kigereranywa na Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo mu Burayi.

Muri make, Ukraine isobanuye byinshi ku mateka y’u Burusiya, ikavuga byinshi ku bukungu bwabwo ndetse igasobanura byinshi ku mutekano w’u Burusiya, byose bikaba impamvu nyamukuru Perezida Putin atigeze arebera mu gihe yabonaga ko Ukraine iri kujya mu maboko y’umwanzi.

Ubushukanyi bwa NATO?

Kuva Putin yatangira kugaragara muri politiki y’u Burusiya mu 1999, uyu mugabo ntiyigeze na rimwe yishimira kwaguka kwa NATO. Ubwo u Burusiya bwemeraga amasezerano yo kwihuza k’u Budage bw’Iburasirazuba n’Iburengerazuba mu 1990, NATO yemereye u Burusiya ko itazongera umubare w’ibihugu, cyane cyane ibiri mu Burasirazuba bw’u Burayi byahoze muri URSS.

Kuva icyo gihe, ibihugu 13 bimaze kwinjira muri uyu Muryango, ibyo Perezida Putin yakunze kuvuga ko ari ukurengera no ‘kwica amasezerano yemeranyijwe hagati ya NATO n’u Burusiya’, nubwo atashyizweho umukono.

Uko NATO yakomeje kwaguka igana mu Burusiya, niko abaturage ba Ukraine bakomeje kugira ubushake bwo kugana mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi (EU), ibintu byatekerezwaga nk’ibidashoboka nyuma gato y’isenyuka rya URSS.

Abayobozi ba Ukraine bahoze bafitanye umubano mwiza n’u Burusiya ariko ibintu byatangiye guhinduka muri za 2004 ubwo abayobozi badashyigikiye u Burusiya batangiye kugira ijambo muri Ukraine.

Mu 2010, Victor Yakunovych uri ku ruhande rw’u Burusiya yatsinze amatora, mu 2013 aza kwanga gusinya amasezerano yari bworoshye ubucuruzi hagati ya Ukraine na EU, ahubwo ahitamo gusinya amasezerano n’u Burusiya, bwamuteye inkunga ya miliyari 15$.

Ibi byateye imyigaragambyo ikomeye yamenyekanye nka ’Euromaidan’, irangira Perezida Yakunovych avuye ku butegetsi, ahungira mu Burusiya. Ihunga rya Yakunovych ryababaje abaturage bo mu Burasirazuba bwa Ukraine mu bice bya Luhansk na Donetsk, bamwe batangira kwigaragambya, birangira batangaje ubwigenge ndetse abatuye Crimea basaba kwiyunga n’u Burusiya, bakava kuri Ukraine.

Hagati aho, Guverinoma nshya ya Ukraine yatangije umushinga wo gukura Ikirusiya mu ndimi zikoreshwa n’ubutegetsi, ibintu byarakaje abatuye mu bice bya Luhansk na Donetsk byiganjemo abafite inkomoko mu Burusiya, ndetse hejuru ya 75% bakaba bavuga Ikirusiya. Abaturage baje kurema imitwe yitwaje intwaro batangiza intambara igamije ubwigenge.

Ku nshuro ya mbere aba baturage bari bafite intwaro nke, gusa zigenda ziyongera bitewe n’ubufasha bw’u Burusiya, usibye ko na Leta ya Ukraine itari yarashyize imbaraga mu bikorwa byo guhangana n’iyi mitwe. Ibintu byahinduye isura muri Nyakanga 2014, ubwo indege ya Malaysian Airlines yari itwaye abagenzi 298 yaraswaga, bigashinjwa izi nyeshyamba.

Icyo gihe Ingabo za Ukraine zakajije ibitero ku nyeshyamba, ariko biba iby’ubusa kuko n’u Burusiya bwongereye ibikoresho ndetse amakuru akavuga ko zimwe mu ngabo zabwo zinjiye muri iyi ntambara.

Muri Kanama impande zombi zashyize umukono ku masezerano y’agahenge azwi nk’Amasezerano ya Minsk, ariko n’ubundi ntiyubahirizwa kuko intambara yakomeje hagati y’impande zombi, aho imaze guhitana abarenga ibihumbi 14 muri rusange.

Kimwe mu byatumye iyi ntambara ikomeza ni uko imitwe irwanya Ukraine ivuga ko igenzura igice cyose cya Donbas giherereyemo Luhansk na Donetsk, mu gihe igenerwa kimwe cya gatatu gusa cy’icyo gice.

Nyuma y’imyitozo yakomeje gukorwa na NATO ndetse na Amerika mu Nyanja Yirabura, muri Werurwe 2021 Perezida Putin yasabye ko Ingabo ze zitangira gukorera imyitozo mu Burengerazuba bw’Igihugu cye, hafi y’umupaka wa Ukraine. Iri tegeko ryanubahirijwe muri Crimea.

Kuwa 21 Gashyantare, abayobozi ba Leta za Luhansk na Donetsk basabye ubufasha bwa Perezida Putin ku cyo bavugaga ko ari ibitero biri gutegurwa n’Ingabo za Ukraine, mu gihe abandi benshi bahungishijwe. Ibi byabaye nyuma y’uko Putin yari amaze kwemera ubwigenge bw’izo Leta zombi, aho u Burusiya bwabaye Igihugu cya mbere ku Isi cyazemeje.

Amaherezo y’intambara azaba ayahe?

Kimwe mu byitezwe bya hafi muri iyi ntambara ni ukwiyongera kw’ibiciro bya gaz na peteroli, kuko u Burusiya bucuruza ingana na 24% by’icuruzwa ku Isi, mu gihe u Burayi bukoresha 48% by’iyo buvanye mu Burusiya. Ni mu gihe kandi kimwe cya gatatu cya peteroli u Burayi bukoresha ikomoka mu Burusiya.

Kugeza ubu, ibiciro bya peteroli ku kagunguru kamwe byamaze kurenga 100$ bwa mbere mu myaka umunani ishize. Mu gihe iyi ntambara yarushaho kwaguka, bisobanuye ko byagira ingaruka ku biciro bya gaz na peteroli kandi ibi bihita bigira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’Isi.

Byitezwe ko ubukungu bw’Isi bushobora kuzagabanukaho 0.5% kubera ibihano bishobora gufatirwa u Burusiya, aho banki zabwo zishobora gukurwa mu ihuriro rizwi nka SWIFT ryifashishwa mu guhererekanya amafaranga ku rwego mpuzamahanga.

Izi ngaruka kandi zishobora kugera ku rwego rwa politiki, kuko zishobora gutuma ibindi bihugu bikomeye na byo bitera ikirenge mu cy’u Burusiya kuko hakiri byinshi bikunze kugaragaza ko byibwe ubuso bwabyo.

Ku ruhande rwa Putin, iyi ntambara ishobora gutuma Perezida Putin arushaho kugira igikundiro, kuko ubwo yateraga Crimea mu 2014, igipimo cy’uburyo yishimiwe cyarenze 90%, dore ko Abarusiya benshi bagaragaje ko batishimiye ko Ukraine ijya muri EU.

Iyi ntambara kandi ishobora kurushaho guca intege Amerika n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bw’Isi, ku buryo amahame nka demokarasi ashobora kugenda ata agaciro mu bihe biri imbere.

Igiteye ubwoba muri ibi byose ni mu gihe haramuka hatangijwe intambara ishobora guhuza NATO n’u Burusiya mu buryo bwuzuye. Ukraine ikora kuri Pologne n’ibindi bihugu bine bya NATO, mu gihe ikosa iryo ari ryose ryatuma u Burusiya burasa NATO, byatuma uyu Muryango wegura intwaro ugatabara nk’uko biri mu masezerano yawo, ibyatuma havuka intambara karundura ishobora kuba iya Gatatu y’Isi, yarwanwa hifashishijwe intwaro kirimbuzi, dore ko impande zombi zizifite.

Ntabwo bizwi neza igihe iyi ntambara izamara, ndetse amateka yerekana ko intambara nk’izi zishobora gutinda mu buryo butateganyijwe, icyakora ikizwi cyo ni uko u Burusiya bufite ubushobozi bwo kuyirwana igihe kirekire, nk’uko na Perezida Putin aherutse kubitangaza, aho yavuze ko igihugu cye cyiteguye ibintu byose bishobora kubaho.

Si ubushake gusa kuko n’ubushobozi bw’ubukungu bwemerera u Burusiya kuzarwana iyi ntambara igihe kirekire, nk’uko 10% by’ububiko bw’amafaranga yayo ari bwo buri mu madolari ya Amerika, ibishobora gutuma ibihano by’ubukungu byayifatirwa bitayigiraho ingaruka zikakaye.

Mu gihe iyi ntambara yamara igihe kirekire, birashoboka ko ishobora gucamo ibice bimwe mu bihugu bigize NATO na EU. Kuri ubu byinshi muri ibyo bihugu bishyigikiye icyemezo cyo guhana u Burusiya, uretse ko ibi bishobora kubigiraho ingaruka zirimo izamuka rya gas, naryo ryatuma habaho izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko bityo ubukungu bugahungabana muri rusange.

Nk’ubu bimwe mu bihugu by’i Burayi, cyane cyane mu Burasirazuba, bikoresha gas bikuye mu Burusiya ku kigero cya 100% kandi nta bundi buryo bwo kuyisimbuza. Urugero ni nka Mecedonia, Bosinia and Herzegovina na Moldova, aho gas bikoresha yose ituruka mu Burusiya.

Ibindi ni nka Finland ikura mu Burusiya 94% bya gas ikoresha, mu gihe Latvia ikoresha 93%. Iki kigero kiri kuri 77% muri Bulgaria, kikaba kuri 49% mu Budage na 46% mu Butaliyani. Pologne ifite 40% mu gihe u Bufaransa bukoresha 24% bya gas y’Abarusiya.

Kubera ko guhindura amasoko no gukura gas mu bindi bice nka Amerika na Qatar bihenze cyane, byitezwe ko ibihugu bimwe na bimwe bizarushaho kudakoma rutenderi ku birebana n’icyemezo cy’u Burusiya cyo gutera Ukraine, mu rwego rwo kwirinda ibyago byabaho mu gihe gas bikura mu Burusiya yahagarikwa.

Mu gihe byagenda gutya, bisobanuye ko ibyemezo bya NATO na EU ku Burusiya bishobora kutagera ku kintu gifatika, kuko byinshi muri byo bitorerwa, bityo bikaba bishobora kwangwa na bimwe mu bihugu byagirwaho ingaruka n’ibihano bizafatirwa u Burusiya.

Amafoto yerekana uko bihagaze muri Ukraine nyuma y’ibitero by’Ingabo z’u Burusiya

Abaturage batangiye guhunga ari benshi

Imodoka nyinshi zagaragaye zihunga Umurwa Mukuru wa Ukraine, Kyiv

U Burusiya buri kumisha ibisasu biremereye kuri Ukraine

Ingabo za Ukraine zigenzura ibikoresho byazo byangijwe n'ibisasu by'u Burusiya

Ubwoba ni bwose mu baturage hirya no hino muri Ukraine

Abaturage bakomeje kugirwaho ingaruka n'iyi ntambara

Ibikorwaremezo birimo n'inzu z'abaturage byatangiye gusenyuka

Imyiteguro y'intambara yakajijwe mu nkengero za Kyiv

Intwaro ziremereye ziri kwifashishwa muri iyi ntambara

Bamwe bari kuzinga utwabo bahunga

Kuri za banki hari imirongo miremire y'abantu bifuza kubikuza utwabo bagahunga

Gari ya moshi zihungisha abaturage zimaze iminsi zifite akazi kenshi kuva iyi ntambara yatangira

Imirongo miremire y'imodoka zigerageza guhunga Kyiv

Iyi ntambara imaze kwangiza ibintu byinshi mu gihe gito imaze

Imodoka zitwara ingabo zikomeje kunyuranyuranamo muri Ukraine

Ibifaru biri kwifashishwa cyane muri iyi ntambara