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Ukuboko kw’amahanga, agasuzuguro ka Abiy Ahmed: Intandaro n’indunduro by’intambara isubije Ethiopia mu manga

Yanditswe na Ndahayo Emmanuel
Kuya 27 Ugushyingo 2021 saa 10:22
Yasuwe :

Kuva mu Ugushyingo umwaka ushize, Leta ya Ethiopie iri mu ntambara karundura n’umutwe wa Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ivuga ko ari uw’iterabwoba, ukaba ugizwe ahanini n’abantu bakomoka muri Tigray, agace kari mu majyaruguru y’iki gihugu biganjemo abahoze ari abayobozi bakuru ubwo ishyaka ryabo ryari ku butegetsi mbere y’uko Minisitiri w’Intebe Abiy Ahmed atsinda amatora mu 2018.

Ibibazo byatumye Leta ya Ethiopie na TPLF byinjira mu ntambara ni birebire cyane, aho bifite imizi mu mateka amaze imyaka ibihumbi ariko intandaro nyamukuru yabaye icyo Leta yise kwigumura byakozwe n’umutwe wa TPLF.

Kuva mu 1270 kugera mu 1974, Ethiopie yari iyobowe n’ingoma ya cyami, yakomokaga mu bwoko bwa Ahmara, bukaba ari bumwe mu bunini mu arenga 80 ari muri icyo gihugu, aho bugize 27% by’abaturage barenga miliyoni 115.

Kimwe n’ubundi bwami bwinshi, ubwo muri Ethiopie bwagutse binyuze mu kwigarurira ibindi bice, rimwe na rimwe ugasanga ibice byigaruriwe byari bifite umuco wabyo wihariye, bifite ururimi rwabyo n’imigenzo itandukanye n’iy’ubwoko bw’ubwami. Tigray, Afar, Oromo, Eritrea n’ibindi bice bitandukanye ni uko byagiye byigarurirwa n’Ubwami bwa Ethiopie.

Mu 1974, Lt Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam yafashe ubutegetsi abwambuye Haile Selassie I, Umwami uzwi cyane wari uwa 225 ndetse n’uwa nyuma mu mateka maremare y’Ubwami bwa Ethiopie.

Uyu Mwami yananijwe n’imyigaragambyo karundura y’abaturage bari barazabiranyijwe n’ubukene, mu gihe ibibazo by’amapfa, idindira ry’ubukungu ndetse n’amavugurura yakoze muri politiki byose byamuhuriyeho bishyira iherezo ku butegetsi bwe, bamwe bita ubw’igitugu abandi bakabushima.

Lt Col. Mariam wageze ku ngoma atazwi cyane muri rubanda, yazanye amatwara adasanzwe ku butegetsi. Uyu mugabo yaje yikiza abatavuga rumwe na we, yica abamurwanya, afunga abanyamakuru ku buryo muri rusange habarurwa abantu barenga ibihumbi 30 bapfuye bazira kutavuga rumwe na we.

Uku kubangamira abaturage byatumye havuka imitwe myinshi imurwanya, kenshi ikaza ishingiye kuri ya moko yigaruriwe n’Ubwami bwa Ethiopie. Imitwe imurwanya yarihuje itangiza intambara yo kumukuraho. Iyi mitwe yari iyobowe na TPLF, undi wari uzwi cyane ukaba Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF).

Yakomeje urugamba ndetse iza gukura Lt Col Mariam ku butegetsi mu 1991. EPLF yahise itangaza ko yiyomoye kuri Ethiopie, ubwo Eritrea itangira kwigenga gutyo. Icyo gihe yari iyobowe na Isaias Afwerki wari umurwanyi ukomeye muri EPLF, akaba ari na we ukiyoboye icyo gihugu kugeza ubu.

Ibi byatumye TPLF isigarana ijambo rikomeye mu mashyaka yari asigaranye ubutegetsi muri Ethiopie, ari yo Ahmara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) na Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).

Aya mashyaka yose yabarizwaga mu mpuzamashyaka izwi nka Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) ariko TPLF ikagira ijambo rikomeye muri iyo mpuzamashyaka kuko ari na yo yari yaragize uruhare rukomeye mu gukuraho ubutegetsi bwa Lt Col Mariam, bityo andi mashyaka akabyubaha gutyo.

Icyakora nyuma yo gufata ubutegetsi, ntabwo EPRDF, yakoreraga mu kwaha kwa TPLF, yabukoreshe icyo yavugaga ko iharanira, kuko yakomereje mu kirenge cya Lt Col Mariam ndetse inarushaho. Kwica no kurwanya abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi, kwikubira umutungo w’igihugu no kwimakaza ruswa, byatumye abaturage bo mu yandi moko bazinukwa TPLF rugikubita, bamwe mu batemeranya na yo muri EPRDF bayivamo, abandi bayinenze bakicwa cyangwa bagafungwa.

Ku ngoma ya TPLF, Ethiopie yagize iterambere rifatika, ariko ugasanga iryo terambere ryarihariwe n’abo mu bwoko bw’Aba-Tigray gusa, bari bayoboye igisirikare, ubucuruzi n’ibindi bikorwa bihambaye.

Icyakora nubwo TPLF yari ifite imyitwarire igayitse, yakomeje kubona inkunga n’ubuvugizi bwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’u Burayi, ahanini kuko Leta wari uyoboye yagize uruhare runini mu ntambara yo muri Somalia, aho Amerika yafata Ethiopie nka ‘ambasade’ mu Karere mu bijyanye n’intambara yo kurwanya iterabwoba.

Uretse ibyo kandi, TPLF yari yaragiye kure mu bijyanye no gushimisha abanyamahanga, aho yamburaga abaturage ubutaka ikabuha abacuruzi b’abanyamahanga ivuga ko bazabubyaza umusaruro, uretse ko byaje kumenyekana ko byakorwaga mu nyungu z’abayobozi bakuru babaga bariye ruswa ikabije, bagahitamo gukenesha abaturage mu nyungu zabo bwite.

Hari abavuga ko ubutegetsi bwa TPLF buri mu bwa mbere bwahungabanyije uburenganzira bwa muntu kurusha ubundi bwose muri Afurika, ariko ibi ntibyatumye bufatirwa ibihano ibyo ari byose na Amerika, kuko ‘bwumviraga ibihugu bikomeye, bukemera gushyira mu bikorwa ubushake bwabyo, kabone nubwo bwabangamira abaturage ba Ethiopie.’

Kera kabaye abaturage ba Ethiopie bongeye kwisuganya batangira kwamagana ubutegetsi, imyigaragambyo itangira gukaza umurego kuva muri za 2002 na 2005, aho byageze mu 2015 bimaze kugaragara neza ko TPLF itagifite uburyo bwo kurwanya no gusisibiranya abatavuga rumwe na yo.

TPLF imaze kubona ko itazakomeza kuyobora ubutegetsi kuko uburakari bw’abaturage bwari bumaze kugera ku rwego butakigenzurwa, yahisemo gushaka umukandida ‘witwa ko atavuga rumwe na yo,’ ariko akazakomeza kwemera gukorera mu kwaha kwayo.

Ibintu ariko ntibyayigendekeye neza kuko Abiy Ahmed wari wararwanyije cyane politiki y’ubutaka ya TPLF, ari nacyo cyazamuye izina rye, yaje gutorwa ku kimeze nk’akagambane kakozwe n’andi mashyaka ari mu mpuzamashyaka ya EPRDF, bituma TPLF isa nk’iyigijweyo mu buryo bwuzuye muri politiki ya Ethiopie.

Ubwo Minisitiri w'Intebe Abiy Ahmed yahererekanyaga ububasha na Hailemariam Desalegn wari kuri uwo mwanya kuva mu 2012 kugera 2018 akaza kwegura

Amasinde ya Abiy Ahmed na TPLF

Abiy Ahmed aziranye cyane na TPLF, ndetse akamenya kuvuga ururimi rwa Tigrinya rukoreshwa n’abo muri Tigray. Uru rurimi yarwigiye ku rugamba rwo gukuraho Mariam yinjiyemo mu 1991 ubwo yari afite imyaka 14 gusa. Bitewe n’uko ingabo yarwanagamo zarimo abasirikare benshi bakomoka muri Tigray, byabaye ngombwa ko yiga ururimi rwabo kugira ngo bajye bumvikana mu buryo bworoshye, ndetse ibi byanamufashije kuzamurwa mu ntera cyane mu gisirikare.

Abiy akigera ku butegetsi, yaje avuga impinduka, ashimangira ko agiye kongera ibijyanye n’uburenganzira bwa muntu ndetse n’ubwigenge bw’itangazamakuru, byose bikiyongera ku kurandura ruswa no kubaka ubukungu bufatika.

Ku ikubitiro, Abiy yahise ategeka ko ibihumbi by’imfungwa za politiki zirekurwa ndetse bamwe muri bo abaha akazi. Yahise kandi asesa impuzamashyaka ya EPRDF, ashinga indi mpuzamashyaka yise ‘Prosperity Party’ yari igizwe n’amashyaka yari muri EPRDF ukuyemo TPLF yahawe ubutumire ikabwanga. Iyi mpuzamashyaka nshya yarimo n’abahoze banenga TPLF cyane, barimo n’abari bavuye muri gereza.

Yakoze impinduka zikomeye mu bukungu, zirimo gushyiraho gahunda yo kwegurira abikorera ibigo by’ubucuruzi bya Leta. Izi gahunda zamaganywe cyane n’abahoze ku butegetsi bwa TPLF, kuko bungukiraga cyane mu bucuruzi bw’ibigo bya Leta.

Ibintu byahinduye isura ubwo izi mpinduka zageraga mu gisirikare. Muri Kamena 2018, amezi abiri gusa nyuma yo kugera ku butegetsi, Abiy yateranyije inama y’abasirikare bakuru ababwira ko ashaka kuvugurura igisirikare mu kucyongerera ubunyamwuga ndetse no kugabanya uruhare rwacyo mu bikorwa bya politiki y’imbere mu gihugu. Hadaciye kabiri yakoze impinduka zikomeye mu gisirikare, akuraho benshi mu basirikare b’Aba-Tigray bari bihariye imyanya yo hejuru, abasimbuza abandi.

Aba-Tigray bari barakajwe n’uko impuzamashyaka bayoboye igihe kinini ari yo ibakuye ku mugati, barisuganyije basubira iwabo muri Tigray, aho ishyaka ryabo ryari rigifite amaboko, nyuma yo kwamaganwa n’andi mashyaka mu butegetsi bw’igihugu.

Bitewe n’ubunini ndetse n’ubwinshi bw’abaturage bafite imigenzo n’imico itandukanye, Ethiopie ifite imiyoborere iha uburenganzira ubuyobozi bw’igice runaka, ku buryo bushobora kwifatira ibyemezo bimwe na bimwe, nk’uko bimeze muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Ibi bivuze ko TPLF yari ifite ubushobozi bwo gufata ibyemezo bitandukanye muri Tigray, ariko ikabifata mu buryo bwemewe n’amategeko ya Leta iyoboye igihugu.

Ibi siko byagenze kuko bamaze kugera muri Tigray, TPLF yatangiye gukora ibikorwa bihabanye n’amategeko ya Leta, birimo gukoresha imyitozo ya gisirikare nta burenganzira, kuba ingabo za Tigray zaratangiye kugirana umubano n’ingabo z’amahanga ndetse n’ibindi bikorwa byagaragaraga nk’ubushotoranyi, uretse ko nta kinini Leta ya Abiy yabikoragaho.

Perezida wa Tigray, Debretsion Gebremichael, yahoze ari muri Guverinoma ya Abiy Ahmed, aza guhunga nyuma gato y'uko urugamba rutangiye, ahita akomeza mu nshingano zo kuyobora Tigray

Imbarutso y’intambara

TPLF yakomeje gukora ibikorwa bisa nk’ubushotoranyi, ari nako yanga kwakira intumwa za Abiy Ahmed zari zigamije kubaganiriza ku myitwarire yabo.

Ibintu byarushijeho kuzamba mu bihe bya Covid-19, yatumye Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Ethiopia ategeka ko amatora yari ateganyijwe mu 2020 atazakorwa muri icyo gihe, mu rwego rwo kwirinda ikwirakwira ry’icyorezo cya Covid-19, nk’uko byagenze mu bindi bihugu byinshi byari bifite amatora mu mwaka ushize.

TPLF yanze kumvira iki cyemezo, ivuga ko ari uburyo Abiy ari gukoresha mu kwihunza amatora kuko yari butsindwe mu buryo bukabije. Ku bw’izo mpamvu, uyu mutwe wavuze ko amatora mu gace uyobora ka Tigray azakorwa, ndetse arakorwa TPLF iyatsinda ku ijanisha rya 98%, nk’uko yahoze ibigenza ubwo yari ikiyoboye igihugu kuva mu 1991 kugera 2018.

Icyakora muri aya matora, amashyaka abiri atavuga rumwe na TPLF muri Tigray yanze ibyayavuyemo, avuga ko yakozwe mu buryo butanyuze mu mucyo kuko umubare w’abatoye, uburyo batoyemo, uburyo amajwi yabaruwe n’ibindi biranga amatora yanyuze mu mucyo, bitagaragajwe.

Birumvikana ko Leta ya Ethiopia nayo yanze kwemera ibyavuye mu matora, ahubwo itangira kwegeranya ingabo zayo, ari nabwo imyiteguro karundura y’intambara yari itangiye mu buryo bweruye.

Ku rundi ruhande TPLF nayo yari yarakajije imyiteguro, ndetse yanaje kurasa isasu rya mbere ryabaye imbarutso y’iyi ntambara, ubwo yateraga ikigo cy’Ingabo za Leta kiri muri Tigray, ikiba intwaro zikomeye, ikica abasirikare benshi abandi ikabatwara bunyago. Ibi bikorwa byashobotse kuko mu ngabo za Ethiopia imbere, harimo abasirikare benshi bagishyigikiye abagenerali b’Aba-Tigray bari barirukanywe na Abiy Ahmed. Aba batanze amakuru yo mu kigo imbere, ku buryo byashoboje abateguye igitero bo muri TPLF, kugira amakuru yatumye igitero kigenda neza.

Iki gitero cyaciye intege ingabo za Ethiopia mu buryo bukomeye, kuko ikigo cya gisirikare cyatewe kiri mu bikomeye ingabo za Ethiopia zifite. Iki kigo cyarimo ububiko bw’intwaro nyinshi ndetse n’umubare munini cyane w’abasirikare. Impamvu ni uko iki kigo kiri hafi ya Eritrea yamaze imyaka myinshi idacana uwaka na TPLF, ndetse impande zombi zigeze gukozanyaho mu ntambara yo mu 1998.

Uretse kuba Tigray yigeranye na Eritrea, ni agace gakomokamo abahoze ari abasirikare bakuru ba Leta ubwo TPLF yari ifite ubutegetsi, ku buryo hari impamvu nyinshi zo kubaka ikigo cya gisirikare kidasanzwe mu gace kabo.

Nyuma yo kwitegura, ingabo za TPLF zateye iki kigo zibizi neza akamaro kacyo ku ngabo za Ethiopia, ndetse bumva n’uburyo iki gitero ari cyo shingiro ry’ibyo bashaka byose.

Icyakora ku bufasha bw’ingabo za Eritrea, ingabo za Ethiopia zatsimbuye TPLF ku buryo mu gihe kitagera ku kwezi, byavugwaga ko TPLF iri mu marembera.

Eritrea yinjiye muri iyi ntambara bitewe n’amasinde Perezida wayo, Isaias Afwerke, afitanye na TPLF. Aya masinde akomoka mu ntambara yahuje ibihugu byombi hagati ya 1998 na 2000, ibintu byamusigaye mu mutwe cyane ku buryo ubwo Abiy yamugezagaho umugambi wo gutera Tigray akamusaba ubufasha, Perezida Afwerke yabumwemereye atazuyaje.

Ingabo za Eritrea zahinduye ibintu cyane ku rugamba, kuko zasubije akanyabugabo mu ngabo za Ethiopia zari zimaze gukubitwa inshuro mu gitero cya mbere cyazitunguye. Mu gihe kitageze ku kwezi, Abiy yatangaje ko intambara isa nk’imaze gushyirwaho akadomo kuko ingabo za Ethiopia zagenzuraga Mekele, umurwa mukuru wa Tigray.

Ibintu ariko byari bitararangira neza kuko abarwanyi ba TPLF bavuye mu mijyi bagasubira mu misozi miremire iri muri ako gace, aho bongeye kwisuganyiriza, bakora imyitozo ihambaye, bashaka abarwanyi bashya, ubundi bakajya batera udutero shuma tugamije guca intege ingabo za Ethiopia zari zifatanyije n’iza Eritrea.

Inyeshyamba zishamikiye kuri TPLF zikomeje urugamba zihanganyemo na Leta ya Ethiopia

Ukwigaranzurwa kudasanzwe

Nyuma y’igitutu gikomeye cy’amahanga, ingabo za Eritrea zaje kuva muri Ethiopia, iyi ikaba imwe mu mpamvu zikomeye zahinduye ibintu ku rugamba.

Ubusanzwe Ethiopia ni igihugu gisanganywe igisirikare gikomeye, ariko zari zishingiye cyane kuri TPLF ku buryo mu gihe Abiy yakoraga amavugurura mu gisirikare, byatumye igisirikare gicika intege.

Nubwo Aba-Tigray bagize 6% by’abaturage ba Ethiopia, bihariye 18% by’abasirikare b’icyo gihugu, uyu mubare ukazamuka ukagera hejuru ya 30% urebye mu basirikare bakuru.

Amakuru avuga ko impinduka za Abiy zagize ingaruka hafi kuri kimwe cya kabiri cya diviziyo z’igisirikare cya Ethiopia. Ubwo Abiy yirukanaga bamwe mu basirikare bakuru bakomoka muri Tigray, byasize icyuho gikomeye mu myanya yo hejuru, abasirikare bakomoka muri Tigray batakaza icyizere, kuko baketse ko ibyo Abiy ari gukora bigamije kubirukana mu gisirikare.

Ku rundi ruhande, bamwe mu basirikare bakuru birukanywe bahungiye muri Tigray, aho bakiriwe neza na TPLF yabahaye ikaze mu ntambara, bamwe bazana n’abasirikare bato bari inkoramutima zabo mu ngabo za Ethiopia.

Ibi byaje kugira akamaro kuko aba basirikare benshi gutya bari basobanukiwe neza imiterere y’igisirikare cya Ethiopia, ibyatumye bagira ubushobozi bwo gutegura neza urugamba n’ingabo za Leta, bakagira amahirwe yo kumenya imbaraga n’intege nke z’ingabo za Ethiopia.

Ibi binajyana n’uko hari amakosa yakozwe n’ingabo za Ethiopia na Eritrea ubwo zagenzuraga Tigray, arimo gufata ku ngufu abagore n’irindi hohoterwa. Ibi byahaye TPLF amahirwe yo kurushaho gushishikariza abaturage kugana iy’urugamba mu kurwanya Leta ibahohotera, nubwo TPLF nayo yavuzwe mu bikorwa bihungabanya uburenganzira bwa muntu muri uru rugamba.

Muri rusange, ubu bukangurambaga bwatumye uyu mutwe ubona abarwanyi bahagije, biyongera ku basirikare bakuru babatoza bakanategura urugamba, byose biza gutuma uyu mutwe wiyuburura ugira imbaraga kurushaho. Hagati aho, Leta ya Ethiopia yatangaje ko abasirikare bayo bishoye mu bikorwa byo guhohotera uburenganzira bwa muntu bahanwe.

Ibi byose byarimo kuba mu gihe amavugurura yakozwe na Abiy mu gisirikare yari yaragisegeshe, kandi uyu muyobozi yari atarabona umwanya uhagije wo kubaka igisirikare gikomeye nk’uko yabyifuzaga, na cyane ko igisirikare ari urwego rwubakwa mu myaka myinshi. Ibi bivuze ko intambara yasanze igisirikare cya Ethiopia kititeguye neza, kandi ibi byari bizwi n’abasirikare bakuru birukanywe.

Ingabo za zari zimaze iminsi zaracitse intege nyuma yo guterwa zitunguwe zikibwa ibikoresho byinshi

Uhagarikiwe n’ingwe aravoma; amahanga akomeje kunamba kuri TPLF

Nubwo TPLF yagize impamvu zayifashije ku rugamba, uyu mutwe wabonye ikimeze nk’ubufasha burimo ubuvugizi bw’ibihugu bikomeye nka Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Ubumwe bw’u Burayi n’ibindi bikomeye. Ni ibikorwa byatunguranye cyane kuko ibi byose byakorwaga hirengangijwe amakosa yakozwe n’uwo mutwe, ari nayo yabaye intandaro y’intambara.

Icyakora kugira ngo twumve impamvu Amerika ishyigikiye uyu mutwe, ni ngombwa gusobanukirwa umubano waranze impande zombi ubwo TPLF yari ikiyoboye igihugu.

Mu gihe TPLF yageraga ku butegetsi mu 1991, Amerika yari ifite inyungu cyane muri Somalia, igihugu gituranye na Ethiopia, aho ingabo za Amerika ziteguraga kwinjira mu ntambara aho muri Somalia. Iyi ntambara yari igamije kugarura amahoro kugira ngo inkunga y’amahanga ibone uko igezwa ku baturage ba Somalia bari mu bihe by’inzara yakurikiye intambara yari imaze iminsi ica ibintu muri icyo gihugu.

Mu 1994, Amerika yakuye ingabo zayo muri Somalia nyuma y’igitero cyamenyekanye nka ‘Black Hawk’ cyaguyemo abasirikare 18 ba Amerika, kikaba ishusho y’igisebo gikomeye ku ngabo z’icyo gihugu.

Kuva icyo gihe, Amerika yafashe icyemezo cyo kutazongera gupfa gushora ingabo zayo mu ntambara zo muri Afurika, ari naho Ethiopia yaziyemo, kuko Amerika yahisemo gukoresha ubutegetsi bw’iki gihugu mu guhangana n’ibibazo bya Somalia.

Nyuma y’ibitero by’iterabwoba byagabwe kuri Ambasade za Amerika muri Kenya na Tanzania mu 1998, Amerika yarushijeho kubona ko ikeneye akaboko mu Karere k’Ibiyaga bigari, kandi Ethiopia yari hafi na Somalia, igihugu cyarimo kuba indiri y’ibikorwa by’iterabwoba.

Ibitero by’iterabwoba byagabwe kuri World Trade Center mu 2001 nabyo byatumye Amerika irushaho kubona neza akamaro ka Ethiopia, yaje no kohereza ingabo muri Somalia na Sudan mu bikorwa byo guhashya iterabwoba, byabaga bishyigikiwe cyane na Amerika. Iki gihugu nticyateshutse ku ngamba yo kutishora mu ntambara zo muri Afurika, kuko cyari kimaze kwishora mu zindi ntambara mu bihugu nka Afghanistan na Iraq.

Uyu mubano mwiza ariko waje ku kiguzi gikomeye, kuko TPLF yarezwe cyane ibirego byo kwirengagiza uburenganzira bwa muntu, kutagendera kuri demokarasi n’indi myitwarire iteye impungenge, ariko ibi byose bikirengagizwa na Leta ya Amerika kubera izindi nyungu yabonaga muri TPLF.

Uretse inyungu zishingiye ku gisirikare, Leta iyobowe na TPLF yageragezaga kwigengesera ku kintu cyose cyayishwanisha na Amerika, bigatuma yumvira amabwiriza y’icyo gihugu, cyane cyane bigeze ku cyambu cya Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Amerika yagiranye umubano mwiza na Leta ya TPLF mu gihe yamaze iyoboye icyo gihugu

Abiy yashinjwe kwica amatwi

Umugambi wo kubaka urugomero rwa GERD watangiye mu 2011 ku ngoma ya TPLF, ariko Misiri ihita igaragaza ko icyo gikorwaremezo kizagira ingaruka zikomeye ku ngano y’amazi y’umugezi wa Nile, agize 96% by’amazi meza icyo gihugu gikoresha.

Misiri yakomeje gutera hejuru cyane bituma ibihugu birimo Amerika n’Imiryango nka Banki y’Isi n’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF) bihagarika imigambi yo gutera inkunga umushinga wo kubaka uru rugomero wagombaga gutwara miliyari 5$.

Amerika yagiye ku ruhande rwa Misiri bitewe n’umubano mwiza ibi bihugu byombi bifitanye, ushingiye ku kamaro ka Misiri mu gukemura ibibazo by’amakimbirane mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, ndetse no kuba iki gihugu ari cyo kigenzura Ubunigo bwa Suez bukoreshwa n’amato y’intambara ya Amerika mu ngendo zigana muri Aziya y’Iburasirazuba.

Bitewe n’igitutu cya Amerika ndetse no kwanga gukoma rutenderi, TPLF yemeye ibiganiro na Misiri ndetse iza kwemera gutanga imbata y’urugomero kugira ngo harebwe uburyo rutazabangamira ingano y’amazi agera mu Misiri.

Ibintu byahindutse Abiy Ahmed ageze ku butegetsi, akavuga ko nta kabuza uru rugomero rugomba kubakwa uko byagenda kose kandi bigakorwa mu gihe gito gishoboka, ati "Nta mubare w’ingabo watubuza kubaka uru rugomero, nibiba ngombwa ko tujya mu ntambara, tuzategura abarwanyi."

Kugira ngo uru rugomero rwubakwe, Ethiopia iyobya amazi y’umugezi wa Nile kugira ngo ireme ikiyaga gikenewe mu kubaka urwo rugomero. Misiri ivuga ko kuyobya aya mazi bizagabanya 25% by’ingano y’amazi ya Nile agera muri icyo gihugu, bikazagira ingaruka mbi ku bushobozi bw’icyo gihugu bwo kuhira imirima iri mu butayu, bityo iki gihugu kikaba gishobora kugira ibibazo by’inzara, byanahungabanya ubukungu bwacyo.

Kubera izo mpamvu, Misiri iri gusaba Ethiopia kugabanya ingano y’amazi azajya ashyirwa mu kiyaga cy’urugomero, ku buryo hazajya hafatwa amazi macye buri mwaka bityo ingano y’amazi ikenewe mu kurema ikiyaga cy’urugomero ikazaboneka ariko mu gihe kirekire, kugira ngo bitazagira ingaruka ku ngano y’amazi agera mu Misiri.

Iki cyifuzo ntabwo Ethiopia igikozwa, kuko ivuga ko ifite uburenganzira bwo kubaka uru rugomero yifashishije amazi ari ku butaka bwayo, ikagaragaza ko ari umushinga ufatiye runini ubukungu bwayo kandi nta kindi cyawusimbura. Ethiopia ivuga ko idateganya kugabanya ingano y’amazi azashyirwa mu kiyaga cy’urugomero kuko byatinza ibikorwa byo kurwubaka, n’ubundi bisanzwe byaratinze kuko rwagombaga kuba rwaruzuye mu 2018.

Urugomero rwa GERD rwashyamiranyije Ethiopia na Misiri ku rwego rwo hejuru

Urugomero rwa GERD; Umuzuko wa Ethiopia

Ethiopia ni igihugu kiri mu bikennye, ariko iyi sura yahinduka vuba cyane mu gihe urugomero rwa GERD rwaba rutangiye gutanga amashanyarazi.

Niruramuka rwuzuye, uru rugomero ruzatanga megawatt 6000, zizatuma abaturage bose ba Ethiopia babona umuriro w’amashanyarazi kandi uhendutse, unarambye kurusha ubundi buryo bwose bwari gukoreshwa mu kubagezaho amashanyarazi.

Kuri ubu, abaturage bagera kuri miliyoni 76 muri miliyoni 115 zituye Ethiopia nta muriro w’amashanyarazi bafite. Uretse uru rugomero, nta bundi buryo aba baturage bari bizeye kuzabona umuriro mu myaka ya vuba, ibyari bukomeze kudindiza iterambere ryabo.

Mu gihe uru rugomero rwaramuka rwuzuye, Ethiopia yaba ifite umuriro uhagije ndetse urenze kure uwo ikeneye, ku buryo yawugurisha mu bihugu by’ibituranyi byamaze kwerekana ubushake bwo kuwugura. Biteganyijwe ko buri mwaka nibura uru rugomero rwajya rwinjiza miliyoni 550$, amafaranga ahagije ku buryo mu gihe kitarenze imyaka 20, rwaba rumaze kwishyura ikiguzi cyarugiyeho, ndetse rukaniyishyurira ikiguzi cyakomeza kurugendaho mu kurwitaho, nta faranga na rimwe riturutse mu isanduku ya Leta.

Uru rugomero kandi ruzatuma Ethiopia iza mu bihugu bya Afurika bifite umuriro uhendutse, imwe mu mpamvu zikomeye zikurura abashoramari, cyane cyane abo mu rwego rw’inganda.

Uyu muriro uhendutse, kongeraho isoko ry’abaturage barenga miliyoni 115, ubutaka bugari n’ibindi birimo kuba Ethiopian Airlines igera henshi muri Afurika, bihesha Ethiopia amahirwe adasanzwe yo kuba icyicaro cy’ishoramari muri Afurika.

Bivugwa ko zimwe mu nganda ziri mu Misiri, ariko zifuza kwisanga ku isoko ryo muri Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara, ziteganya kwimurira ibikorwa byazo muri Ethiopia mu gihe uru rugomero rwaramuka rutangiye gutanga amashanyarazi.

Mu magambo macye, Urugomero rwa GERD ntirwari bugire ingaruka ku ngano y’amazi agera mu Misiri gusa, rwari bunazigire ku bukungu bw’icyo gihugu, aho rwari guha Ethiopia intwaro yisumbuye mu bijyanye no gukurura ishoramari mpuzamahanga.

Ku ruhande rwa Ethiopia, uru rugomero ntiruzatanga amashanyarazi gusa, ahubwo ruzanakoreshwa mu kugenzura ingano y’amazi ya Nile ku buryo imyuzure yajyaga yibasira ibice uwo mugezi unyuramo mu bihe by’itumba izagabanuka. Ikiyaga cy’urugomero nacyo kizajya kifashishwa mu bijyanye no kuhira imirima mu gihe cy’impeshyi, bityo ikibazo cy’inzara cyaterwaga n’amapfa ndetse n’imyuzure kigabanuke muri Ethiopia, byumvikanisha ko iyubakwa ry’uru rugomero ari nka rya buye ryatewe rikica inyoni ebyiri.

Akamaro k’uru rugomero karakomeye cyane ku bukungu bwa Ethiopia ku buryo nyuma y’uko iki gihugu kibuze inguzanyo yo kurwubaka, abaturage ba Ethiopia ubwabo bahisemo kwishakamo ingengo y’imari ikenewe muri ibyo bikorwa.

Leta yashyizeho konti imbere mu gihugu no hanze yacyo, zose zikoreshwa mu kwakira amafaranga yo kubaka uru rugomero mu gihe abakozi ba Leta na bamwe mu bakozi b’ibigo byigenga, bemeye ko umushahara wabo ukatwa, kugira ngo ayo mafaranga ajye gukoreshwa mu kubaka uru rugomero.

Iyubakwa ryarwo ni kimwe mu bintu bicye cyabashije guhuza abaturage ba Ethiopia kuko hafi ya bose, yewe n’abarwanya Abiy Ahmed, bayishyigikiye ko uru rugomero rwuzura vuba. Nta wabura kuvuga ko umusaruro w’ubutegetsi bwe n’impinduramatwara yazanye byose bizabarwa hashingiwe ku bushobozi bwe bwo kurangiza uru rugomero.

Abiy nawe asa nk’uwamaze guhitamo. Mu nama ya nyuma yateguwe na Amerika mu kuganira kuri iki kibazo, uyu muyobozi yanze kuyitabira, agashinja Amerika kuba yaragaragaje uruhande ibogamiyeho na mbere y’uko ibiganiro bitangira. Amerika nayo yahisemo guhagarika inkunga ya miliyoni 206$ yari igenewe Ethiopia, ibyatumye abaturage n’ubuyobozi bwa Ethiopia barushaho gukeka amababa ubuhuza bwayo.

Amakuru avuga ko nyuma y’uko bigaragaye ko Abiy Ahmed yamaramaje, igisubizo cyashobokaga mu guhindura ibintu ari ugushyiraho Leta nshya itarimo Abiy Ahmed, bityo ikaba yakwemera kugabanya umuvuduko uri gukoreshwa mu kuyobya amazi ajya mu kiyaga cy’urugomero, ari nacyo cyifuzo cya mbere cya Misiri.

Ku rundi ruhande, imyitwarire ya Abiy yatumye Amerika ibona ko atari umuntu wo kwizerwa ndetse ashobora guhindura imiterere y’umubano wa Amerika na Ethiopia mu bijyanye n’umutekano, akaba wenda ashobora kuvana ingabo z’icyo gihugu mu butumwa zirimo mu bihugu nka Somalia, ibintu byarushaho kubangamira inyungu za Amerika.

Indi ngingo bivugwa ko yatumye Amerika ikura amaboko kuri Abiy Ahmed ijyanye n’uburyo uyu mugabo yashyize imbaraga mu mubano n’ibihugu birimo u Bushinwa n’u Burusiya, ndetse bikavugwa ko ingabo za Ethiopia zaguze intwaro mu bihugu birimo Iran idasanzwe icana uwaka na Amerika, byose bikarushaho guhangayikisha icyo gihugu gikomeye.

Igisobanuro cy’ibi byose ni kimwe imbere ya Amerika n’ibindi bihugu bifatanya nayo, ni uko Abiy Ahmed atari umuntu wo kwizerwa, bityo mu gihe TPLF yabasha kumukuraho, byaba biri mu nyungu z’ibyo bihugu.

Minisitiri w'Intebe Abiy Ahmed mu ruzinduko yagiriye mu Bushinwa, akabonana na Perezida Xi Jinping, ikimenyetso cyerekana uburyo yaguye cyane umubano wa Ethiopia n'amahanga, ntiwakomeza gushingira gusa kuri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika

Amaherezo azaba ayahe?

Kugeza ubu, biragoye kwemeza uruhande rufite amahirwe yo gutsinda intambara, uretse ko insinzi za TPLF mu minsi ishize, aho byavuzwe ko yageze mu birometero 200 uvuye mu murwa mukuru Addis Ababa, ishobora kwerekana uburyo uyu mutwe umaze kugwiza imbaraga. Ni nyuma y’uko havuzwe amakuru y’uko uyu mutwe wakiriye intwaro zazanwaga mu makamyo atwaye ibiribwa bigenewe abatuye muri Tigray, uretse ko wakomeje guhakana aya makuru.

Icyakora nyuma y’aho Abiy Ahmed yigiriye ku rugamba ku giti cye, ibintu bishobora guhinduka mu gihe gito.

Mu gihe TPLF yatsinda iyi ntambara, birumvikana ko wagaruka ku butegetsi wavuyeho nabi, aho wamaganywe n’abaturage b’ingeri nyinshi mu myigaragambyo karundura yawukuye ku butegetsi. Icyakurikiraho ni ukwibaza uburyo wayobora igihugu kirimo abaturage bigaragara ko batawifuza, aho bamaze iminsi bakora imyigaragambyo igamije kwerekana uburyo bashyigikiye Leta ya Abiy Ahmed.

Mu gihe utaramuka ufashe ubutegetsi, ariko wenda ukabasha gukomeza kugenzura agace ka Tigray, bishobora gutanga ubutumwa bubi ku tundi duce twa Ethiopia natwo dushobora gusaba kwigenga, bityo bikaba byaba intandaro y’irindimuka rya Ethiopia.

Bivugwa ko mu gihe TPLF yananirwa gufata ubutegetsi, izashyira imbaraga mu gushaka ubwigenge bwayo, aho bamwe bakeka ko ibi binafitanye isano n’uko ubu bwaba ari bwo buryo bwonyine busigaye bwo guhunga ubutabera ku bayobozi bamwe na bamwe ba TPLF bagize uruhare mu makosa yabaye ku ngoma yabo.

TPLF yavuze ko mu gihe yatsinda iyi ntambara, izahamagaza imitwe ya politiki ihagarariye abaturage bose ba Ethiopia, ubundi igashyiraho umwanya wo kuganira ku buryo bwo kuyobora Ethiopia. Ibi biganiro bizemeza niba uburyo busanzwe, bw’aho ubuyobozi bw’intara bushobora kugumana bumwe mu bubasha bufite (federalism), cyangwa niba Guverinoma ari yo izajya igena ibyemezo byose (Centralism).

Mu gihe PTLF yatsinda kandi, byitezwe ko mu gace ka Tigray haba amatora ya kamarampaka, agamije kwemeza niba abaturage bifuza kwigenga cyangwa se bifuza gukomeza kuba igice cya Leta ya Ethiopia, bashinja kubakorera jenoside.

Gutsinda kwa Leta ya Ethiopia bivuze ko byakomeza kongera igikundiro n’imbaraga za Abiy Ahmed, bikamushoboza gushyira mu bikorwa gahunda ndende afite zo guhindura Ethiopia icyicaro cy’inganda muri Afurika, urwego igihugu cye gifitemo amahirwe akomeye.

Itsinzi ya Leta ya Ethiopia kandi yaba isobanuye ko umushinga wo kuzuza urugomero rwa GERD utazadindira, mu gihe umubano w’icyo gihugu na Amerika ndetse na Misiri ushobora gukomeza kugenda biguru ntege.

Hagati aho, Ubuyobozi bw’Umuryango wa Afurika Yunze Ubumwe buhanzwe amaso, dore ko ari bwo bwahawe inshingano yo gukemura iki kibazo gishobora kuvamo icyo bamwe bise ‘Intambara ya Kabiri y’Isi muri Afurika,’ ishobora gutuma ibihugu nka Eritrea, Ethiopia, Misiri, Sudan n’ibindi bitandukanye byinjira mu ntambara, uretse ko abakurikirana iby’iki kibazo bavuga ko amahirwe y’iyi ntambara ari macye.

Nyuma yo kubona ko ibintu byahinduye isura, Minisitiri w'Intebe yahisemo kwigira ku rugamba ku giti cye
Abaturage barenga miliyoni eshanu muri Tigray batunzwe n'inkunga z'ibiribwa zituruka mu hanze y'agace kabo

Ikiganiro kigaruka ku ntandaro n’amaherezo y’ikibazo cya TPLF na Leta ya Ethiopia


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