Ihuriro ry’ubukungu ku Isi ‘World Economic Forum’ mu 2022 ryagaragaje ko mu myaka isaga 70 ishize, ikigero cy’uburumbuke ku bagore babyara cyagabanutse ku gipimo cya 50%.

Mu 1952 umuryango wabarirwaga abana batanu ariko kugeza ubu bari munsi ya babiri mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe.

Umuyobozi w’Ishami ry’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ryita ku mibereho myiza y’abaturage (UNFPA), Natalia Kanem, muri 2020 yatangaje ko nyinshi muri izi mpinduka ziri kugirwamo uruhare n’amahitamo y’abagore.

Ati ‘‘Turavuga tuti, iyi nkundura y’igabanuka ry’imbyaro, ahari iragendana n’amahitamo y’abagore ndetse n’ingaruka zabyo zizaturuka ku myanzuro ifatwa n’abagore. Mu myaka 30 ishize uhereye mu 1990, ibihugu 17 byagezweho n’igabanuka ry’abaturage, naho bitanu muri byo byatakaje hafi 1/3 cy’abaturage babyo’’.

Ubushakashatsi bugaragaza ko ibihugu nibura 23 birimo u Buyapani na Espagne, ababituye bazagabanukaho kimwe cya kabiri mu 2100, aho abazaba babituye bazaba bagizwe n’umubare munini w’abari mu zabukuru.

Ubu bushakashatsi bugaragaza ko kugabanuka kw’imbyaro guturuka ku bagore benshi bari kwiga no gukora imirimo, hamwe no kuboneka kw’imiti iringaniza imbyaro, ibi bituma abagore bahitamo kubyara bacye ugereranyije n’uko mbere byari bimeze.

Indi mpamvu ni uko igiciro cyo kurera umwana cyiyongera umunsi ku munsi, ku buryo imiryango myinshi isigaye ihitamo kubyara bake ishoboye kurera.

Umushakashatsi Prof. Christopher Murray wo muri Kaminuza ya Washington, muri 2020 yagaragaje ko nubwo u Bushinwa buri mu bihugu bituwe cyane, mu myaka iri imbere na bwo buzagerwaho n’izi mpinduka mu buryo ndetse bukomeye cyane.

Ati ‘‘Igihugu nk’u Bushinwa gifite abaturage bari mu kigero cy’imyaka y’abakozi, bazagabanuka ku kigero cya 50% cyangwa munsi yacyo mu gihe cya vuba, ibyo bikazagira ingaruka z’igabanuka ry’ubukungu ndetse bizane n’impinduka mu kubushyira ku murongo’’.

Prof. Murray agaragaza ko Isi izava mu gihe aho gufungura imipaka bitera impaka, ibihugu bikize bitangire kurwanira abimukira kuko bazaba ari bacye cyane.

Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Pew Research Center bwo bugaragaza ko mu 2100 umubare w’abaturage bazaba batuye Isi ari miliyari 10.9, buri mwaka abaturage bakajya biyongera ku kigero kiri munsi ya 0.1%.

Ibi bihabanye cyane n’uko ubwiyongere bw’abaturage bwari bumeze hagati ya 1950 n’ubu, kuko buri hagati ya 1-2% buri mwaka.

Nko mu 2022 abari batuye u Buyapani bari miliyoni zisaga 123 ariko ubushakashatsi buteganya ko abo baturage bazagabanuka bakagera kuri miliyoni 53 mu mpera z’iki kinyejana.

Ni mu gihe u Butaliyani bwari butuwe n’abasaga miliyoni 59, byitezewe ko bazagabanuka bakagera kuri miliyoni 28 mu gihe nk’icyo.

Ibyo ni bibiri mu bihugu 23 birimo na Portugal, Thailand, Espagne na Korea y’Epfo, biteganyijwe ko ababituye bazagabanukaho kimwe cya kabiri mu mpera z’iki kinyejana.

U Bushinwa butuwe cyane kurusha bindi ku Isi aho nko mu ntangiriro za Mata 2023 imibare igaragaza ko bwari bufite abaturage basaga Miliyari 1.4, biteganyijwe ko muri 2100 bazagabanuka bakagera kuri miliyoni 732.

Abatarengeje imyaka itanu bazagabanuka bave kuri miliyoni 681 bari bariho mu 2017 babe miliyoni 401 mu 2100, mu gihe abarengeje imyaka 80 bo baziyongera bave kuri miliyoni 141 bari bariho muri 2017, bagere kuri miliyoni 866 mu 2100.

Ibihugu bimwe byatangiye kwitegura bifata ingamba zirimo kongera igihe cy’ikiruhuko cy’ababyeyi bombi mu gihe babyaye, kwita ku bana ku buntu n’ibindi, ariko si byo bigaragazwa nk’umuti w’iki kibazo.

Muri Afurika ho bizaba bimeze bite mu myaka iri imbere?

Mu gihe bimwe mu bihugu bikize byatangiye guhangayikishwa n’igabanuka ry’imbyaro ndetse n’abaturage babyo, abatuye muri Afurika yo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara biteganyijwe ko bazikuba gatatu bakarenga miliyari eshatu mu 2100.

Abashakashatsi bavuga ko Nigeria izahinduka igihugu cya kabiri gituwe cyane ku isi, kuko kizaba gifite abagituye bagera kuri miliyoni 791 z’abaturage.

Bigaragazwa ko igihe kizagera hakabaho abantu benshi bakomoka muri Afurika mu bihugu byinshi, uko imyaka igenda ishira indi igataha.

Muri 2020 ibi byagarutsweho na Jordan Peterson, umushakashatsi wo muri Canada.

Ati ‘‘Ntekereza ko Nigeria izagira abaturage benshi kurusha u Bushinwa mu mpera z’iki kinyejana. Elon Musk ni umugabo ureba kure, arareba mu gihe kiri imbere akabona nta bantu bahagije bazaba bahari’’.

Peterson akomeza avuga ko atari uko abantu batazaba bahari koko, ahubwo hazaba hariho urubyiruko ruke kandi ari rwo mbaraga z’ubukungu bw’Isi, ibizatuma na bwo busubira inyuma ku kigero giteye ubwoba.

Abarengeje imyaka 80 baziyongera bave kuri miliyoni 141 bari bariho mu 2017 bagere kuri miliyoni 866 mu 2100

Abatarengeje imyaka itanu bazagabanuka bave kuri miliyoni 681 bari bariho muri 2017 babe miliyoni 401 mu 2100

Igabanuka ry'abana bavuka mu bihugu bikize, rizatuma bitangira kurwanira abimukira mu mpera z'iki kinyejana

Mu mpera z'iki kinyejana hazaba hariho urubyiruko ruke, ibizatera ihungabana rikomeye ry'ubukungu bw'Isi