Hari nyuma y’amezi make u Burusiya buteye Ukraine bugahita bufatirwa ibihano bihambaye kugeza n’ubu, mu gihe ibyo bihugu byombi byaturukagamo ingano u Rwanda rukenera mu gukora imigati, amandazi, capati, sambusa n’ibindi hejuru ya 60%.

U Burusiya kandi bwari bufatiye runini Isi mu bijyanye na peteroli na gaz, kuko ari igihugu cya kabiri cyohereza peteroli nyinshi ku masoko mpuzamahanga.

Mu buryo bumwe cyangwa ubundi, intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya yagombaga kugira ingaruka zitari nke ku biciro ku masoko menshi hirya no hino ku Isi no mu Rwanda.

Ibyo byiyongeraho ko muri uwo mwaka wa 2022, Urwego w’ubuhinzi bw’ u Rwanda rwazamutseho 1,6% gusa, bituma umusaruro ugabanyukaho 3,5%.

Bivuze ko ku masoko ibiribwa byera imbere mu gihugu byari bike bigahenda, hakiyongeraho ibyo mu mahanga nabyo byari byabaye ingume kubera intambara.

Ku rundi ruhande, nyuma y’icogora rya COVID-19, ibikorwa by’ubukungu byari birimo gufungura ku muvuduko uri hejuru, biteza icyuho cy’ibintu bikenewe ku isoko bitahuraga n’ibiboneka.

Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, John Rwangombwa, aherutse kuvuga ko inganda zose zari ziri gusubukura imirimo, zikeneye ibyo zifashisha ngo zitange umusaruro. Bivuze ko habayeho gusa n’ababicuranwa ku isoko, mu gihe ibyo zo zashyiraga ku isoko byari bikiri bike.

Zimwe muri izi ngorane zatumye ibiciro birushaho kuzamuka zafashwe nk’ibintu bisanzwe nubwo hari ubwo bavuga ko ikibi ntawe ukimenyera. Mu gihe zimwe zigenda zibonerwa umuti, hari izananiranye nk’intambara yo muri Ukraine.

Umwaka wa 2022 waciye agahigo mu kwiyongera kw’ibiciro mu Rwanda, aho imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare (NISR) yerekanye ko byazamutseho 13,9%, ukwezi k’Ugushyingo kuza ku isonga mu byashegeshe ingo z’abanyarwanda kuko ibiciro byazamutse ku kigero cya 21,7%.

Umwaka mushya nawo benshi bawutangiye nabi kuko ku masoko ibintu byari bigihenze. Ukwezi kwa mbere kwa 2023 kwarangiye ibiciro biri ku kigero cya 20,7% ugereranyije n’ukwezi nk’uko mu 2022.

Kugeza n’ubu ibiciro mu Rwanda biracyari hejuru ariko imibare iherutse ya NISR itanga icyizere, nihatagira ikindi kivangamo. Muri Gicurasi 2023 ibiciro biyongereyeho ku kigero cya 14,1% mu gihe muri Mata byari byiyongereyeho ku kigero cya 17,8%.

Igihe cy’agahenge cyaba ari iki?

Mu Rwanda, igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro gifatirwa kuri 5%, ikiri hejuru cyane kibasha kwihanganirwa kikaba 8%.

BNR nk’urwego bireba yafatanyije na Guverinoma hafatwa ingamba zitandukanye zirimo kongera urwunguko rwa Banki Nkuru ku nguzanyo zihabwa amabanki, aho rwashyizwe kuri 7%. Byari bigamije kugabanya amafaranga mu baturage kugira ngo badakomeza gutuma ku masoko ibiciro bizamuka.

Ibyo byajyanye no gushyiraho Nkunganire ku bikomoka kuri peteroli kugira ngo bitarushaho kuzamuka ingendo zigahenda ari nako ibiciro byo gutwara ibicuruzwa bizamuka, bikagera ku muguzi bimuhenze.

Guverinoma kandi yashyizeho Nkunganire ku ifumbire mvaruganda n’izindi nyongeramusaruro zifashishwa mu buhinzi, kugira ngo abahinzi bahinge biboroheye bityo umusaruro wabo uzaboneke uhendutse.

Muri Mata uyu mwaka kandi Guverinoma yakuyeho umusoro ku nyongeragaciro ku ifu y’ibigori n’umuceli, ishyiraho ibiciro ntarengwa byabyo hamwe n’iby’ibirayi, nka bimwe mu biribwa bikoreshwa cyane mu gihugu nyuma y’uko byari bikomeje gutumbagira ku masoko hirya no hino mu gihugu.

Mu gihe intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya nta cyizere cyo kurangira vuba gihari, u Rwanda rwatangiye gushakisha amasoko ahandi. Mu kwezi kwa gatatu uyu mwaka u Rwanda rwinjiye mu bwumvikane na Zimbabwe ku buryo icyo gihugu cyajya kigurisha isukari yacyo mu Rwanda.

Ku bijyanye n’ingano, Guverinoma yatangiye gushakisha amasoko ahandi nko muri Brésil , Australia na Serbia, mu kuziba icyuho cy’izavaga muri Ukraine n’u Burusiya.

Mu bindi bishobora gushingirwaho nk’ibyagize uruhare mu kumanuka kw’ibiciro, ni imibanire myiza y’u Rwanda na Uganda ndetse n’u Burundi muri iyi minsi ishize, aho urujya n’uruza rw’ibicuruzwa rwongeye gukomorerwa nyuma y’igihe birebana ay’ingwe.

Raporo ya NISR y’ubucuruzi bw’u Rwanda n’amahanga mu kwezi kwa kane, igaragaza ko ibyo u Rwanda ruvana muri Uganda byazamutse cyane muri aya mezi ashize, nk’aho muri Werurwe uyu mwaka u Rwanda rwavanye muri Uganda ibicuruzwa bifite agaciro ka miliyoni hafi 18$, muri Mata rukavanayo ibifite agaciro ka miliyoni 16,4$.

Ni ubwiyongere bungana na 93% ugereranyije n’ibicuruzwa by’ibihumbi 60$ u Rwanda rwavanye muri Uganda muri Mata 2022.

Icyizere cy’uko ibiciro bizasubira uko byahoze mbere ya 2022 cyo gisa nk’ikiraza amasinde, icyakora BNR yemeza ko ibiciro byo bizakomeza kugabanyuka muri uyu mwaka.

Guverineri wa BNR, John Rwangombwa, mu kwezi gushize ubwo yaganiraga n’itangazamakuru nyuma yo guterana kw’akanama ka politiki y’ifaranga yagize ati “Guhera mu kwezi kwa 11 umwaka ushize (2022) twabonye ibiciro bitangira kumanuka nubwo bikiri hejuru."

"Iyo turebye imibare tubona ko uyu mubare uzakomeza kumanuka bikagera munsi ya 8% mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka. Mu mwaka utaha bizaba biri munsi ya 5%, bizaba byasubiye mu bipimo twe twifuza kugira nka Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu.”

Bigenze uko BNR ibitangaza, bivuze ko ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa tubona uyu munsi ku masoko, bitazakomeza kwiyongera ku muvuduko wo hejuru ahubwo ibyinshi bizaguma aho biri cyangwa bijye ku giciro cyo hasi.

Ubuyobozi bw’Ikigo gishinzwe guteza imbere ubuhinzi n’Ubworozi, RAB, buvuga ko bugikusanya imibare kuko ibihingwa byinshi bikiri mu murima, ku buryo ishusho nyayo y’umusaruro w’iki gihembwe itaragaragara kugera mu mpera z’uku kwezi.

Icyakora, hari n’impungenge zishobora gushingira ku biza biheruka kwibasira Intara y’Iburengerazuba n’amajyaruguru, byangije umusaruro ku rwego rukomeye, abantu barenga 135 bakahasiga ubuzima.

Izi ntara zifite byinshi zisobanuye ku bukungu bw’igihugu kuko ariho ibiribwa byinshi nk’imboga n’ibirayi bituruka.

Bimwe byatangiye kwigaragaza nk’aho kugeza ubu ku masoko atandukanye mu mujyi wa Kigali hari ikibazo gikomeye aho usanga nta karoti zihagije zirimo, ku buryo n’aho uzisanze ziba zihagazeho mu biciro.

Imibare igaragaza ko ibiciro ku masoko y'u Rwanda bigenda bigabanyuka ugereranyije n'umuvuduko byari biriho mu ntangiriro z'uyu mwaka