Ibihugu byinshi byo ku Isi, ni ubwa mbere byahura n’inkubiri y’izamuka ry’ibiciro rikabije mu myaka ya vuba. Nko mu Bwongereza, kuva ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi, Kantar, cyatangira gushyira hanze imibare y’izamuka ry’ibiciro, ni ubwa mbere iby’ibiribwa byazamukaho 17,1% mu kwezi gushize.

Ni ikibazo cyazengurutse imfuruka zose z’Isi. Mu Rwanda, Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare cyatangaje ko ibiciro ku masoko byiyongereyeho 20,7% muri Mutarama 2023, ugereranyije na Mutarama 2022.

Abasesenguzi bashimangira ko intambara yo muri Ukraine, imihindagurikire y’ibihe n’icyorezo cya Covid-19 mu bihugu nk’u Bushinwa ari ipfundo ry’akaga gakomeje gushegesha Isi yose.

Abahanga mu by’ubukungu ntibagoheka bararwana inkundura bashaka uko bacubya ubukana bw’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko. Ingamba zose zishoboka zirageragezwa, aho Banki Nkuru z’Ibihugu zafashe iya mbere mu kuzamura ibipimo fatizo cy’inyungu zigurizaho amabanki y’ubucuruzi.

Mu kwezi gushize, Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda yafashe icyemezo cyo kuzamura iyi nyungu fatizo iva kuri 6,5% igera kuri 7% mu gukumira izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro ku isoko no gukomeza gushyigikira izahuka ry’ubukungu.

Ntabwo byoroshye gusobanukirwa uko kuzamura inyungu fatizo ya BNR bikorwa n’uburyo bifasha mu kugabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko.

Prof. Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora ishami rishinzwe politiki y’ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda (BNR), ubwo yari mu kiganiro ‘Dusangire Ijambo’ yasobanuye ko iyi nyungu ifatirwaho igihe bikenewe ko BNR ari yo yohereza amafaranga mu mabanki cyangwa igihe bikenewe ko iyakurayo.

Ni ukuvuga ko hari igihe BNR iha amabanki amafaranga ayakeneye mu gihe cy’icyumweru ku nyungu ya 7% ariko nanone hari igihe bikenerwa ko amafaranga agaruka muri BNR, amabanki akajya kuyabitsa ari BNR ibibasabye nk’uburyo bumwe bwo guhangana n’ibiciro ku isoko.

Prof. Kasai ati “BNR ishobora kongera amafaranga cyangwa ikayagabanya bitewe n’uko iri kubona ari umurengera ku isoko”.

BNR isaba amabanki kujya kubitsa amafaranga iyo ibona amabanki hari ayo yasaguye, ni ukuvuga ayasigaye nyuma y’uko abakiliya hari ayo bakeneye bakayabona. Ayo yose atakoreshejwe hari igihe BNR ibona ari menshi ikavuga ngo ‘muyazane tuyabike kugira ngo ataza guteza ibibazo by’izamuka ry’ibiciro rikabije kuko atakoreshejwe’.

Aya mafaranga iyo amabanki ayajyanye muri BNR ikayabika, iyabika ku nyungu ya 7% [nk’uko bimeze uyu munsi], ariko nanone iyo amabanki ayakeneye [iyo abakiliya bayakeneye] BNR ikabona ayari mu mabanki agiye kuba make, izana ayo ibitse cyangwa ayayo ikayaha amabanki.

Bisobanuye ko iyo nyungu fatizo ibarwa ku mafaranga BNR iri bwinjize mu mabanki cyangwa ayo iri buvane mu mabanki.

Prof. Kasai asobanura ko ‘ibi bikorwa mu minsi irindwi. Iri janisha ni ku mwaka ariko ayangaya ni iminsi irindwi itarenga, bishobora no kuba umunsi umwe, ibiri, bitewe n’uko isesengura ryabonye ko umurengera uhari uri bumare iminsi ibiri’.

Ati “BNR ikora isesengura yabona ko yenda umurengera w’amafaranga uhari [amafaranga yasagutse] ushobora kumara iminsi runaka ntawe uyakoresheje, igahamagara amabanki akayajyana ikayungukira 7% mu minsi idashobora kurenga irindwi. Iyo irenze hari ukundi tubigenza”.

Kuzamura inyungu fatizo bimanura gute ibiciro ku masoko?

Kuzamura inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, bifite uruhare rukomeye cyane mu kugabanya ibiciro ku masoko.

Prof. Kasai asobanura ko niba BNR yahera banki amafaranga ku nyungu ya 7% cyangwa iramutse iyafashe yayafatira kuri 7%, ni icyerekezo iba yatanze, ku buryo iyo banki nazo zigiye kugurizanya hagati yazo ziba zizi ayo BNR ishobora kuziheraho n’ayo ishobora kuyafatiraho igihe abaye umurengera.

Ati “Ibi byerekana uko amafaranga ari kugenda arushaho guhenda kuko iyo bivuye kuri 6.5% bikajya kuri 7% bivuze ko amafaranga yatangiye guhenda”.

Mu bukungu, iyo ikintu cyahenze gikenerwa gake, bivuze ko amabanki agurizanya hagati yayo ashobora gukomeza ariko umukiriya wa banki wari ukeneye kujya kuri banki niyumva ko hazamutseho ikintu, imibare ye irahinduka.

Bituma abantu bafata amadeni y’ibintu by’ibanze bikenewe cyane bakareka ibyo kwinezeza. Icyo gihe n’ababicuruza babona ko abaguzi babaye bake bakagabanya igiciro.

Prof. Kasai ati “Iyo abantu bagabanyije amafaranga bagatangira kubara ibyo bagiye kugura, ababisaba baba bake, ababicuruza nabo bagabanya ibiciro”.

Iyo witegereje ku masoko, usanga ibiciro by’ibiribwa byiganjemo ibihingwa imbere mu gihugu byaratumbagiye cyane. Ibirayi biragura 700Frw ku kilo, igitoki kiragura 350Frw, ibijumba bigura 400Frw gutyo gutyo.

Iradukunda Joy ushinzwe isesengura rya politiki y’ifaranga muri BNR, asobanura ko kuba ibihingwa mu Rwanda na byo ibiciro byazamutse bishingiye ku mpamvu ebyiri; imihindagurikire y’ibihe n’ikiguzi cy’ubwikorezi.

Ati “Imihindagurikire y’ikirere yagize ingaruka ku musaruro tubona uva mu buhinzi, ibyo bigenda bigira ingaruka ku biciro ku masoko. Iyo umusaruro utabonetse ntube nk’uko byari bisanzwe bimeze, birumvikana ko bizaboneka ariko biri ku giciro cyo hejuru”.

Biterwa nuko igipimo cyabonetse kiba kitangana n’igipimo cyari gisanzwe kiboneka ariko n’aho byakavuye hanze naho bikaba biri ku giciro cyo hejuru.

Ibyo bizatuma byabindi byeze, uwabyejeje najya kubigurisha azabigurisha ku giciro kiri hejuru kuko azaba areba icyo ari buvanemo n’icyo ari buze kugura, icyo ayo mafaranga ari bumumarire.

Kubivana aho byasaruriwe, ni indi mpamvu ituma ibiciro bizamuka kuko uwagiye kubirangura azakoresha imodoka zikoresha ibikomoka kuri peteroli bihenze, bityo bigere ku isoko hinjiyemo ikindi giciro cy’ubwikorezi.

Imibare yerekana ko izamuka ry’ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga mu 2022 ryari ku muvuduko wa 8,8%, bikaba byarikubye inshuro zirenze ebyiri kuko ubusanzwe impuzandengo yabaga iri hafi ya 3%.

Muri uyu mwaka, umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro uzakomeza kuba hejuru ku kigero cya 6,6%, bivuze ko uzagabanyuka ugereranyije n’uko umwaka ushize wanganaga.

Umwaka ushize ubukungu bw’Isi bwazamutse kuri 3,4%, uyu mwaka byitezwe ko buzazamuka munsi y’uwashize ku kigero cya 2,9%.